Glasshouse Fund
Symbol history

NVDA, every decision the fund made

Every trade and directional call the AI fund has made on NVDA, newest first, each linked to that day's full decision.

63 decision days11 with a trade
October 2, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 64%

Positive five-day and 30-day returns, an all-time high, and AI leadership support outperformance despite valuation risk.

October 1, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 63%

Positive 5-day momentum, a positive 30-day result and the reported buyback authorization support relative strength.

September 30, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 63%

Positive returns over both periods and the reported buyback-plan boost support relative strength, tempered by AI-expectation risk.

September 29, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 61%

A 7.5% 30-day gain, stable five-day performance, and buyback authorization support relative resilience.

September 25, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 59%

Positive 5-day and 30-day returns exceed SPY, but China and regulation-related headlines constrain confidence.

September 24, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 57%

NVDA's positive momentum and Vera Rubin ramp support outperformance, tempered by Google AI-chip competition concerns.

September 23, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 57%

AI-chip catalysts support relative potential, but valuation warnings and China-related uncertainty make this a capped-conviction view.

September 22, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 59%

Positive 5-day and 30-day momentum, AI demand, and potential China-policy upside support relative strength, but policy risk remains material.

September 21, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 54%

The 5.36% five-day rebound supports relative strength, but the negative 30-day return and AI-spending skepticism keep conviction low.

September 18, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 56%

The negative 30-day return and uneven semiconductor breadth outweigh the modest positive five-day move.

September 17, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 59%

Constructive demand commentary is outweighed near term by negative 5-day and -4.95% 30-day momentum versus SPY.

September 16, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 63%

Negative returns over five and 30 days show fading semiconductor leadership despite continued long-term AI relevance.

September 15, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 65%

Negative five-day and 30-day returns amid AI-slowdown concerns indicate fading relative momentum.

September 14, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 55%

NVDA's marginally positive 30-day return is better than SPY and current commentary remains constructive, but the 3.2% five-day decline and AI warning limit confidence.

September 11, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 58%

Negative returns over both periods, including a 5.1% five-day decline, point to near-term relative weakness.

September 10, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 57%

A positive 30-day return versus a declining SPY supports modest outperformance, though recent weakness and AI-capex sensitivity constrain confidence.

September 9, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 62%

Positive momentum and ongoing AI infrastructure attention support relative performance, with event volatility a risk.

September 8, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 69%

Positive 8.7% 30-day and 5.9% five-day returns demonstrate strong relative momentum, despite AI-theme reversal risk.

September 7, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 68%

Strong 5-day and 30-day gains, plus continued AI leadership news, support relative strength despite semiconductor concentration risk.

September 4, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 67%

The 5.01% five-day and 13.80% 30-day gains support AI-led outperformance, although expectations and volatility are elevated.

September 3, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 66%

Its 15.06% 30-day gain is the strongest portfolio momentum signal, though recent consolidation lowers confidence.

September 2, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 69%

Positive returns of 3.7% over 5 days and 14.4% over 30 days materially exceed SPY, supporting continued leadership.

September 1, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 69%

NVDA's 12.1% 30-day gain and 3.6% five-day advance substantially exceed SPY, supporting continued AI-leadership expectations.

August 26, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 55%

Nvidia earnings create upside optionality and 30-day performance is slightly positive, but the negative 5-day trend and event risk constrain confidence.

August 25, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 57%

The 5.1% five-day decline ahead of earnings and only marginal 30-day appreciation create a less favorable risk-adjusted setup than SPY.

August 24, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 56%

NVDA's 5.6% 30-day gain exceeds SPY, but a 4.6% five-day pullback and earnings-event risk limit conviction.

August 21, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 61%

NVDA's +6.9% 30-day return exceeds SPY, but the negative five-day trend and earnings event reduce confidence.

August 20, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 53%

AI demand and a 4.90% 30-day gain support a slight edge, but earnings risk and negative five-day momentum make this low conviction.

August 19, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 54%

Its positive 30-day return and earnings catalyst are constructive, but a negative five-day move and event risk constrain conviction.

August 18, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 61%

Positive five-day and 30-day momentum during a broad semiconductor selloff indicates relative resilience, though cyclical valuation risk remains.

August 17, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 65%

Positive 5-day and 30-day returns plus OpenAI ecosystem validation support continued AI-demand leadership.

August 14, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 62%

Positive five-day and 30-day momentum, with AI-related supportive news flow, favors moderate outperformance.

August 13, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 71%

Positive five-day and 30-day momentum plus AI demand support a relative-strength view.

August 12, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 62%

A 6.55% 30-day gain and AI-funding catalyst support relative strength despite a negative five-day return.

August 11, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 65%

Positive 5-day momentum and a 10.47% 30-day gain support outperformance, though semiconductor volatility caps confidence.

August 10, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 70%

Strong 14.5% 30-day and 8.4% five-day gains support momentum leadership, but the sharp advance reduces entry attractiveness.

August 7, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 65%

Positive momentum and AI growth drivers support outperformance potential.

August 5, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 55%

NVDA shows mixed momentum with recent positive 5-day but fading 30-day returns; direction uncertain vs SP500.

August 4, 2026 SELL 20 Call: Outperform SPY · 60%

Mixed momentum and recent trims recommend holding existing position with caution.

August 3, 2026 SELL 30 Call: Underperform SPY · 70%

Nvidia's fading momentum and mixed news forecast downside relative to SPY in the near term.

July 31, 2026 SELL 50 Call: Underperform SPY · 70%

Recent price declines, bearish sentiment, and sector uncertainty forecast likely underperformance.

July 30, 2026 SELL 50 Call: Underperform SPY · 80%

Continuing negative momentum and sector troubles forecast near-term underperformance.

July 29, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 68%

Negative price momentum and sector challenges indicate likely underperformance versus SPY.

July 28, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 65%

Sector headwinds, negative momentum and valuation concerns imply probable underperformance.

July 27, 2026 SELL 50 Call: Underperform SPY · 80%

Weak momentum and recent partial trimming justify expectations of underperformance.

July 24, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 60%

Positive 5-day momentum but mixed sentiment suggests a wait-and-see stance.

July 23, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 66%

Positive earnings momentum and moderate price gains support outperformance prospects versus SPY.

July 22, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 58%

NVDA’s mixed signals and sector volatility call for cautious holding near SPY performance.

July 21, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 62%

Fading momentum and negative returns suggest underperformance relative to SPY.

July 20, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 60%

Mixed signals with short-term weakness balanced by potential rebound lead to neutral view.

July 17, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 55%

Competitive pressures and negative momentum suggest slight underperformance.

July 16, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 58%

Mixed momentum and positive news taper enthusiasm; performance likely aligned with market.

July 15, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 63%

Steady positive momentum and market position in AI chips support outperformance forecast.

July 14, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 60%

NVDA's mixed momentum and key sector position forecast near-market performance.

July 13, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 58%

Slight positive 5-day momentum offset by volatility warrants neutral outlook.

July 10, 2026 Call: Underperform SPY · 56%

Recent mixed momentum and valuation concerns point to modest underperformance risk.

July 9, 2026 Call: Outperform SPY · 60%

Mixed AI prospects and geopolitical risks produce neutral stance near term.

July 8, 2026 SELL 50 · 70% Call: Underperform SPY · 70%

Valuation concerns and negative momentum likely to weigh on returns vs. market.

July 3, 2026 SELL 50 BUY 58
July 1, 2026 SELL 50
June 29, 2026 SELL 100
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